Perth: Strong Growth Forecast for the 2021-23 Period

(sources: Westpac and ABS)

(written: Steeger Consulting)

Westpac recently revised up its growth forecasts for Australia’s GDP in the second half of 2020 from 2.8% to 4%.

Despite Victoria’s extended lock down, the national economy appears to be recovering well with labour force figures released last week shocking economists with the unemployment rate falling to 6.8% from 7.5%. WA recorded the lowest percentage of payroll job losses.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics announced: “WA is a clear standout, nearly 9 out of 10 of the payrolls lost in mid-April have been recovered”.

The new outlook reflects a view that the economy of most Australian States would rebound strongly from the collapse in the June quarter based on their milder and briefer COVID disruptions. WA’s economy is tipped to grow by 7% in the 6 month period.

As for the WA residential housing sector: cautious optimism is being replaced by a sniff of bullishness with interstate and local investors creeping back in to the Perth market. Westpac expect Perth price increases over the 2021–23 period of 18% for the 2 year period, compared to the national average of 15%.

Continued low housing stock, coupled with current high levels of buyer activity is beginning to put upward pressure on Perth prices. The average time to sell a house is decreasing in many suburbs and it is increasingly difficult to find and secure quality properties.

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