Australia’s economy expanded by 0.7% quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter despite weak private demand, as per economists at Australia and New Zealand (ANZ) banking group,
After the release of key partial indicators this week, we expect GDP to have risen 0.7% q/q in Q4. This would see annual growth lift to 2.3%, consistent with the RBA’s characterisation of a “gentle turning point”.
The 0.7% figure is a little stronger than on 0.5% q/q preliminary estimate released last Friday. The main new pieces of information since then are stronger than initial expected inventories, profits, and wages, only partly offset by slightly weaker government spending and net exports.
Private demand looks to have been very weak. We estimate another fall of 0.1% q/q, which would leave annual growth in negative territory at -0.5%. The mainstays of economic growth continue to be public demand and net exports.
The official data due at 0:30 GMT on Wednesday is expected to show the economy expanded by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter and 2 percent year-on-year.